My Portfolio Is Up 8% in Dollars and Down 13% in Forints

On 28 September 2026 my portfolio showed two numbers that could not both feel true.

Measured in US dollars, it had returned +7.8% since early January 2025. Measured in Hungarian forints, the currency my mortgage and most of my spending are in, the same portfolio had returned −13.0%.

Same holdings. Same 21 months. Same trades. One number says I did fine, the other says I lost an eighth of my money. Both are correct, and the gap between them is one of the least discussed facts about investing from a small-currency country.

What happened to the forint

The portfolio is roughly half US-listed stocks, about a third a euro-listed world ETF, and the rest Hungarian government bonds and one Canadian stock. So most of it is priced in currencies other than the one I live in.

Over the same window, the forint got a lot stronger:

Rate (ECB reference)	7 Jan 2025	28 Sep 2026	Change
USD/HUF	400.01	322.64	−19.3%
EUR/HUF	415.73	367.10	−11.7%

At the low point, on 16 June 2026, a dollar bought only 301.47 forints, 25% fewer than in early January 2025.

Every dollar my stocks earned was worth fewer forints when I looked at it.

The one-line formula

Your return in your home currency is your return in the foreign currency, multiplied by what the exchange rate did:

(1 + return in HUF) = (1 + return in USD) × (rate at end ÷ rate at start)

With my numbers:

1.078 × (322.64 ÷ 400.01) = 1.078 × 0.807 = 0.870

A 7.8% gain in dollars, times a 19.3% drop in what a dollar is worth in forints, is a 13% loss in forints. Nothing about the investments themselves explains it. The currency did all of it.

Measured in euros, the same portfolio is down −1.5%: the forint gained less against the euro than against the dollar, so the loss is smaller, but it is still a loss. Three currencies, three different stories about one set of holdings.

Why the timing of each contribution matters

The numbers above are time-weighted returns. They measure the portfolio as if I had put one lump sum in on 7 January 2025 and never touched it. That is the right way to judge the investments, but it is not what I actually did. I added money almost every month.

The money-weighted return (also called IRR) accounts for when each contribution went in. For the same period it tells a different story:

Measured in	Time-weighted, per year	Money-weighted (IRR), per year
HUF	−7.8%	−4.7%
USD	+4.5%	+3.8%

In forints, my actual result was less bad than the time-weighted number. Most of my contributions went in during 2025 and 2026, after the forint had already strengthened. Those forints bought dollars at 340, 320, or even close to 300, not at 400. They had less currency loss ahead of them than the money I started the period with.

That is also why “is the currency hurting me?” has no single answer for someone who invests every month. Each contribution has its own entry rate. Money I added in June 2026, when a dollar cost about 301 forints, is actually up on currency today: the dollar has recovered to about 322 since then.

So which number is real?

Both. They answer different questions:

• The dollar return says whether my picks worked. Up 7.8% over 21 months is a modest but positive result for the stocks and ETFs I chose.
• The forint return says whether I am richer. My mortgage, groceries, and most of my other spending are in forints. By that measure, the portfolio lost ground.

For a decision about my own life, such as whether I can afford a renovation or when I can stop working, the forint number is the one that counts. For a decision about whether to keep my investment approach, the dollar number is the fairer judge.

Earning in francs makes it a three-currency problem

There is one more layer. I earn in Swiss francs, and the forint strengthened against the franc too: CHF/HUF fell from 441.05 to 387.89 over the same window, a 12.1% drop.

So the same currency move hit me twice:

• My salary buys fewer forints. Every franc I earn now converts into 12% fewer forints than it did in January 2025. For someone who spends mostly in forints, that is a 12% pay cut that no payslip shows.
• My portfolio is worth fewer forints. That is the −13% above.

The two exposures don’t cancel out, they stack. Foreign income and foreign investments both lose when the home currency strengthens. The only part of my portfolio the forint’s rise couldn’t touch was the Hungarian government bonds.

Here is the same portfolio measured in all four currencies that matter to me:

Measured in	Time-weighted return, 7 Jan 2025 to 28 Sep 2026
USD (most holdings)	+7.8%
CHF (my income)	−1.1%
EUR (the world ETF)	−1.5%
HUF (my spending)	−13.0%

Each number answers a different question:

• USD and EUR: did the investments themselves do well?
• CHF: did investing my salary beat leaving it as francs? Over this window, it roughly broke even.
• HUF: can I afford the life I actually live? This is the one that went down.

What I am (not) doing about it

Mostly nothing, deliberately:

• Not selling because of the rate. Currencies move both ways. Selling after a 19% move locks in the loss and bets that the move continues.
• Keeping near-term money in forints. The emergency fund and anything I need in the next few years stay in the currency I will spend them in, where the exchange rate cannot touch them.
• Watching the currency effect as its own line. When I know how much of a monthly change is the market and how much is the rate, I stop overreacting to either.

The last point is the one that changed my behavior. Tallyroot’s net worth history separates the change that came from money I added or spent from the change that came from exchange rates. The month I first saw that split on my own data, the rate line explained more of the movement than my saving did. That made “a good month” mean something different.

If you earn, spend, and invest in different currencies, check your portfolio in each of them. The gap between the two numbers is your currency exposure, and it is worth knowing its size before it surprises you.